Israel would face challenge in bombing Iran nuclear sites, experts say

(CNN) -- It's late in Iran on a dark night, moonless or with heavy clouds. Suddenly the silence is broken by sonic booms, followed by the sound of jets roaring overhead.

Flying in tight formation, Israeli fighter planes drop bunker-busting bombs on a nuclear enrichment plant built into the side of a mountain.

Iranian pilots race for their own jets to fight back, but by the time they take to the sky, it's too late. The Israeli jets streak away.

That, at least, is what Israel would like to happen if it decides to attack Iran in an effort to prevent it from acquiring the ability to make nuclear weapons.

But would it be as easy for Israel to destroy Iran's nuclear sites as it was for the Jewish state to strike an Iraqi reactor in 1981 or a suspected one in Syria five years ago?

Experts inside and outside Israel say no.

They envision a much more complicated attack, one that would involve more than 100 planes -- from fighters to refueling tankers -- flying hundreds of miles to bomb up to eight targets around Iran.

Possible site of Iran explosive tests identified, think tank says

Israel hit one target each in Iraq and Syria, but Iran's nuclear assets are spread over multiple sites in different parts of the country. One is buried under concrete. Another is dug into a mountain. Surface-to-air missiles and electronic warfare systems protect them all.

They also are significantly farther away from Israel than the targets in Iraq or Syria.

Possible flight routes

Possible targets of an Israeli air strike

And they may not be the only sites Israel would need to destroy to achieve its goal.

Bombing Iranian nuclear facilities would be "very complicated," said Ephraim Kam, deputy director of Israel's Institute for National Security Studies.

"It is a very large-scale operation, much greater than the one carried out in Iraq 30 years ago," said Kam, a former colonel who served with an intelligence research division in the Israeli military.

Israel would most likely attack Iran with fighters jets -- the F-15I and the F-16I -- rather than missiles fired from submarines, Kam and other experts said.

"In order to create proper damage to the nuclear plants, you need extremely accurate weapons," Kam said. "I don't know that the missiles are accurate enough."

According to the London-based defense analysis group Jane's, Israel has one squadron -- about 25 planes -- of F-15I jets, which are similar to the F-15 Eagle fighters of the U.S. Air Force. Israel calls its version of the fighter Raam, or Thunder.

It has four squadrons of F-16Is, the Israeli version of the U.S. F-16 Fighting Falcon. The Israeli jet is known as the Suefa, or Storm.

The Israeli fighters lack the range to reach most of the likely targets in Iran, so Israel would also need to put tanker aircraft into the sky, said Douglas Barrie of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.

Israel has at least seven KC-707 tankers that it could use for airborne refueling, Barrie said.

It also has at least four KC-130H tankers, versions of the giant Hercules aircraft, but is not likely to use them because their slow speed means the jets would need to slow down to link with them, wasting fuel, he said.

The strike aircraft would carry bunker-busting GBU-28 bombs -- 5,000-pound bombs to "go after hardened and buried sites," Barrie said.

Each F-15I could carry up to three bunker-busters, he said, depending on whether they are configured to carry the maximum number of bombs or the largest possible amount of fuel.

The American military has an even larger bunker-buster, the 30,000-pound GBU-57, but there's "no indication the Israelis have requested that weapon" or that Israel has the B-2 or B-52 bombers needed to deliver it, Barrie said.

Like other experts, he based his analysis on the assumption that if Israel mounted an attack, it would do so without American help.

There would be at least four primary targets, said Emily Chorley, a nuclear expert at Jane's: the Natanz and Fordo nuclear enrichment plants, the Esfahan uranium conversion facility, and the Arak nuclear complex.

Esfahan and Arak are above ground and are "relatively vulnerable to aerial attack," she said.

But Natanz, in the center of the country, is buried under 33 feet of earth and 6 feet of concrete, Chorley said, making it "very hard to penetrate."

Fordo, near the holy city of Qom, is "even more difficult" because it is deeply buried in a mountain, she said.

Dropping a bunker-busting bomb on Fordo actually might make it less vulnerable, Chorley said, since collapsing the entrance without destroying the facility would protect it from further bombing.

"It's questionable whether Israel is capable of destroying it in an air-launched attack," she said.

"Just getting Natanz and Arak without getting Fordo wouldn't be worth the risk," she argued, since Fordo is enriching uranium to higher levels than the other sites.

All four targets are protected by S-200 and Hawk surface-to-air missile batteries, said Chorley's colleague, Jim O'Halloran, a specialist in land-based air defense.

Israel would have at least two secondary targets as well, Chorley predicted -- the Tabriz and Imam Ali missile bases in the west, "to prevent a retaliatory missile attack" on Israel.

It also could try to strike the controversial Parchin military base east of Tehran, which inspectors with the International Atomic Energy Agency have been trying to visit, Chorley said.

Israel also might target the Bidganeh military base, which suffered a mysterious explosion in November. That would bring the number of potential targets to eight.

Iran's single declared civilian nuclear reactor probably is safe, Chorley said.

An attack on the Bushehr reactor would risk spreading nuclear contamination, and could mean killing Russian personnel at the Russian-built facility, infuriating Moscow.

Israel has three potential routes of attack, according to Jane's and other experts, assuming its fighters do not fly all the way around the Arabian Peninsula. Jane's says the Israeli Air Force does not have enough refueling capacity to travel that distance.

The northern route would go through Turkey, with which Israel has tense relations. The southern route would go through Saudi Arabia, which fears its rival Iran getting a bomb but is openly hostile toward Israel.

In order to create proper damage to the nuclear plants, you need extremely accurate weapons. I don't know that the missiles are accurate enough
Ephraim Kam

The central route is the shortest. It runs through Jordan and Iraq. Jordan and Israel are at peace, but there's no guarantee Jordan would formally give Israel permission to fly over its territory.

Iraqi air defenses, meanwhile, "cannot prevent violations of sovereignty," said Charles Hollosi of IHS Jane's. That makes it the "most likely location for air refueling."

Israel will need to decide what altitude its planes would fly at on the way in. Flying higher would protect them from the defenses of the countries they fly over, but will expose them sooner to Iranian radar.

"You're going to be in the cockpit three hours-plus before you get to the target unless you go the central route," said Barrie, the International Institute for Strategic Studies' senior fellow for military aerospace in London.

He doubts the Iranians would be able to detect them coming that far away.

"I don't imagine them having two hours' notice. The Israelis will be desperate to give them as little notice as possible.

"They will try to ensure their aircraft remain below their radar as long as possible," he said. "If you're in an Israeli fast jet you don't want it to be anything like a fair fight."

Barrie noted the Israeli military's success in attacking a suspected nuclear site in Syria in 2007.

"The Israelis, with a mix of electronic warfare and electronic attack, degraded Syrian air defenses to the point where they didn't see the strike package coming in," he said.

"Can the Israelis pull off tactical surprise the way they did with the Syrians in 2007? Going after three or four strike targets is much harder," he said.

Iran's air force has American-made F-14 Tomcats acquired under the shah's regime, which ended in 1979, Barrie said, as well as Russian-made MiG-29s. On paper, they are not a match for the Israeli planes.

"Israel remains the pre-eminent air force in the region -- well-equipped, and they have trained long and hard," he said.

"The Iranians are at an obvious disadvantage in terms of the age and quality of the equipment they have, but they also train hard and will be motivated," Barrie said. "I would be surprised if the Israelis are underestimating the Iranians."

Iran buys U.S. wheat again, trade set to grow

Iran has purchased 60,000 tonnes of U.S. wheat, the U.S. government said on Thursday, raising the two-week tally to 180,000 tonnes, which industry sources said reopened grain trade ties between the two countries embroiled in a stand-off over Tehran's nuclear ambitions.

Iran's purchases of U.S. wheat this year are its first in three years, and the sources said the OPEC member was close to completing purchases of another 220,000 tonnes to be shipped as early as April, and in talks with exporters to buy another undisclosed amount.

The price tag for the 400,000 tonnes -- 180,000 confirmed and 220,000 yet to be formally declared -- could be around $160 million, export sources said.

Prices were believed to be above world market prices by around $25 (16 pounds) to $30 per tonne to account for the greater risk shipping grain to the volatile region.

Trade sources said grain giants Cargill Inc. and Bunge Ltd were the likely suppliers to Iran, but the two companies declined to comment.

The two companies were also major sellers of wheat to Iran three years ago when Iran, normally self-sufficient in wheat, imported nearly 7 million tonnes on the world market, including 1.8 million tonnes from the United States.

Iran has purchased some 2 million tonnes of wheat from several origins since February as it stockpiles food in response to tough new sanctions aimed at containing its nuclear program.

"If they need something really quick and reliable, the U.S. is there to do it," said a U.S. wheat trader, asking not to be named.

"You can only get so many cargoes out of Brazil or Germany quickly. Russia obviously still has

some logistical issues and if they want more, and they want it in April or May at the latest, they're going to have to come to the U.S.," he said.

LARGE APPETITE FOR WHEAT

Wheat traders said they were not surprised that Iran was seeking grain from its arch rival, but were impressed by the size of Tehran's appetite for imported grain and urgency of that need.

"They seem to be taking hundreds of thousands of tonnes a week. If that's the case and we repeat 2008, if they buy 7 million tonnes of wheat, this is going to be a huge deal for the market," said another wheat trader, citing the last time when a drought-reduced wheat crop prompted Iran to book U.S. wheat.

He cited a recent Iranian purchase from another origin that was booked then began loading within a few days.

Global wheat stocks are hovering near record levels, but supplies in major exporting countries in position to be shipped quickly were far less abundant, traders said.

Iranian imports could top 5 million tonnes this year, with the majority of that by the end of May, they said.

"They are scaling up imports because of fears of poor crops due to severely dry weather in the region. Expectations for seasonal output have been reduced, and inventory levels have come off," said Shelley Goldberg, director of global resources and commodities strategy at research company Roubini Global Economics in New York.

The United States has imposed sanctions hitting Iran's oil trade and central bank to pressure Tehran to shutter its nuclear program, which Iran says is for peaceful purposes. A U.S. advisory group said last month that the sanctions are squeezing Iran's oil exports even before they take effect in June.

The sanctions are making it increasingly difficult for the country to pay for staple foods, causing hardship for its 74 million people. The wheat sales are approved under a humanitarian authorization from the Treasury Department to ensure food and other needed items reach the Iranian people.

Iran also has approached Pakistan and India and has bought wheat from Russia, Germany, Canada, Brazil and Australia in recent months in an effort to build its food stores.

(Corrects spelling of Shelley Goldberg, not Shelly, in paragraph 15)

(Additional reporting By Emily Stephenson in Washington, KT Arasu in Chicago; Editing by Alden Bentley and David Gregorio)

Source: Rueters

Saudi troops attack student protesters, injure six

Hundreds of Saudi students have gathered inside a college campus in the southwestern province of Asir to protest against poor services.

According to Press TV, they also complained of food prices and poor education provided by the ministry of education.

The students say they want the government to acknowledge its setbacks in the education system and put an end to mistreatment by teachers and morality police.

The protest came one day after university students in the capital, Riyadh, held a rally and boycotted classes to protest against poor educational facilities.

They also called for university teachers and security guards to treat students well.

Over the past few days, students across the country have been holding sit-ins in several universities, demanding better treatment by teachers and the morality police.

On March 7, dozens of student were injured after security forces broke up a protest at King Khalid University in Abha in the Asir Province.

Meanwhile, 128 pilots from Saudi Airlines have called for a strike. Last year a similar strike caused disruptions in many flights.

Riyadh is facing growing calls for justice and release of political prisoners since last year.

Several people have been killed and many more injured or detained in Riyadh's crackdown on protests.

Israeli aircraft hit Gaza in response to rockets

JERUSALEM - The Associated Press

Palestinians looked at a destroyed building on March 14, 2012, after an Israeli air strike on Gaza City. AFP photo

The Israeli military says its aircraft have struck militant sites in the Gaza Strip in response to continued rocket fire on southern Israel.

The two sides agreed earlier this week to halt a four-day flare-up of violence but sporadic rocket fire and retaliatory airstrikes have persisted.

Thursday's airstrike came after three rockets were fired at Israel a day earlier. No one was hurt.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has blamed Iran for the latest violence.

He accused Tehran on Wednesday of arming, financing and training the militants in Gaza. He also hinted Israel would be prepared to attack Iran's nuclear facilities even if the U.S. objected. He cited cases such as the 19891 attack on an Iraqi nuclear reactor, when Israel acted against Washington's counsel.

source : hurriyate daily news

Weiss: Zionism has created 'rivers of blood'

When Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, visited Washington last week on the eve of the Purim holiday, he gave Barack Obama, the US president, what he considered a symbolic gift - a copy of the old testament book of Esther.

Netanyahu called it "background reading on Iran", since its story concerns relations with Jews in the Persian empire some 2,500 years ago.

It is considered by scholars to be mostly fiction, but for Netanyahu Esther represented justification for his stance against modern Iran.

”Israel must reserve the right to defend itself. And after all that’s the very purpose of the Jewish state. To restore to the Jewish people control over our destiny,” Netanyahu said.

But Netanyahu’s controversial reading of history, even his fight to preserve the state of Israel, are questioned by many of Judaism’s own religious authorities.

"This is against the will of the Almighty and this is not what it means to be a Jew," says Jewish religious scholar Rabbi Yisroel Dovid Weiss, a spokesman for "Jews against Zionism", who believes that Israel as a state is not legitimate. He says that Zionism has created "rivers of blood" and he opposes the occupation of Palestine.

On the threat from Iran and President Ahmadinejad he says: "He gives charity to Jewish communities and he says one thing: he has a problem with the oppression of the Palestinian people. And the words "wipe out" he constantly says that Iran doesn't have a history and he is not talking about harming anybody he says that God will not allow this crime to happen. We concur with him that Jews are in danger because there is Zionism because it says in the Tora if you rebel against God, it will not be successful and there will be catastrophic results and Zionism has brought catastrophic results and it could be much worse."

Today on Talk to Al Jazeera Weiss explains why Zionism and Judaism are not necessarily the same thing.

Rabbi Yisrael Dovid Weiss explains why he believes that Israel as a state is not legitimate.

Source : Aljazeera

Afghan Taliban suspend peace talks with US

The Afghan Taliban have announced the suspension of all negotiations with the United States, talks that had been seeking an end to the decade-long war in Afghanistan. "The Islamic Emirate has decided to suspend all talks with Americans taking place in Qatar from today onwards until the Americans clarify their stance on the issues concerned and until they show willingness in carrying out their promises instead of wasting time," the armed group said in a statement on Thursday. The statement said the US had continued to change the terms of the negotiations and had presented a "list of conditions" in their latest meeting that was in contradiction to earlier arrangements. Also on Thursday, Afghan President Hamid Karzai demanded foreign troops pull out of villages, another blow to the US military presence in the country. Karzai's demand came days after a US soldier’s pre-dawn shooting spree in southern Kandahar province left 16 civilians dead. The soldier, an army staff sergeant, was flown out out of Afghanistan to Kuwait on Wednesday. "Our demand is that this process should be executed sharply and the responsibility should be handed over to Afghans," Karzai said in a statement after meeting with Leon Panetta, the US secretary of defence. Karzai added that both sides "should work towards completing the transition of security responsibilities to Afghan forces in 2013, and not the announced date of 2014". A US defence official told Reuters news agency the US does not believe Karzai is seeking immediate pull out from villages. "There is a schedule for security transition...and President Karzai did not ask for any change in the current schedule (at the meeting)," the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity to reporters traveling with Panetta. Oana Lungescu, a NATO spokesperson, said "NATO remains committed to enabling the Afghan security forces to take full responsibility for security as soon as practically possible." 'Spiraling downward' According to reports, the Taliban's pre-condition that five of their high-ranking officials be released from US detention in Guantanamo Bay seems to have halted any progress in peace talks. From the perspective of one neighbourhood in Herat Al Jazeera's Bernard Smith, reporting from Kabul, said the Taliban had expected the release of the high-ranking prisoners by now and it seems that they have given up on that happening. "I think from the US perspective, you have to see things going from bad to worse in their Afghan policy. All recent events point to a spiraling downward, including the Quran burning incident and then the killings of the 16 villagers, now Karzai is asking the US remove troops. "There is sense that the US [policy] is heading to some sort of disarray at the moment.” The Taliban announced the opening of a political office in Qatar in January, what was considered a major step in reaching a compromise agreement to end the 10 year war. Karzai showed little support for the announcement, but eventually endorsed the move. "The Americans initially agreed upon taking practical steps regarding the exchange of prisoners and to not oppose our political office but with the passage of time, they turned their backs on their promises," the Taliban statement said. "An American representative presented a list of conditions in his latest meeting with the Islamic Emirate which were not only unacceptable but also in contradiction with the earlier agreed upon points." Al Jazeera’s Rosiland Jordan, reporting from Washington DC, said the situation has certainly raised concerns for US officials. “One thing the officials will be looking at is whether this is a critical blow to the overall peace process about working a reconciliation deal," she said. "Is this just political posturing on the part of the Taliban, or whether there are deeper problems in the initial stages of confidence building.” Source: Al jazeera

Death penalty possible in Afghan massacre: Panetta

The shooting spree in the southern province of Kandahar, which killed mostly women and children, has triggered angry calls from Afghans for an immediate American exit from the country, as Washington tries to negotiate a long-term presence to keep it from sliding into chaos again.

Panetta, however, attempted to portray the shooting as an isolated event that would not alter plans for a gradual, orderly withdrawal of American combat forces by the end of 2014.

"War is hell. These kinds of events and incidents are going to take place, they've taken place in any war. They're terrible events. And this is not the first of those events, and it probably won't be the last," the defense secretary told reporters on a flight to Kyrgyzstan.

"But we cannot allow these events to undermine our strategy or the mission that we're involved in."

Panetta, answering questions for the first time about the shooting rampage, said U.S. officials were still uncertain about the motives behind it.

He said the goal was to try the case within the U.S. military justice system. Asked whether the death penalty could be considered in this case, Panetta replied: "My understanding is that in these instances that could be a consideration."

Panetta said of the soldier, whose name has not been made public: "He went out in the early morning and went to these homes and fired on these families. And then at some point after that, came back to the forward operating base and basically turned himself in, told individuals what had happened." These were the preliminary findings of the investigation, he said.

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said on Monday that the death penalty could be sought over the massacre of 16 villagers in Afghanistan, which U.S. officials said they believe was the work of a rogue American soldier.

Asked whether the soldier in fact confessed, Panetta said: "I suspect that that was the case."

While U.S. officials rushed to draw a line between the rogue shooting and the ongoing efforts of a U.S. force of around 90,000, the incident has infuriated Afghans already suspicious of a Western military presence now over a decade old.

Last month, the burning of copies of the Koran on a NATO military base triggered violent protests across the country and a spate of insider attacks against Western soldiers.

The string of incidents, which also included release of a video of Marines urinating on the corpses of Taliban fighters, appear to have raised questions about the U.S. strategy of training Afghan security forces to take over as NATO troops depart.

But Panetta said, "I think when you look at that larger picture, it does make clear that these kinds of events are isolated and don't represent what's really happening in Afghanistan.